The attack on Osama bin Ladens compound employed red teams and statistical risk assessments before the operation; whereas, the battle of the Bay of Pigs was undone by a failure to employ targeted questioning.5, When the scientist tells you he does not know the answer, he is an ignorant man. Opening story: International debate champion Harish Natarajan vs. Debra Jo Prectet (later revealed to be a computer AI). When were searching for happiness, we get too busy evaluating life to actually experience it.. Make a list of conditions under which you would change your mind. We hesitate at the very idea of rethinking., When it comes to our own knowledge and opinions, we often favor. You get to pick the reasons you find most compelling, and you come away with a real sense of ownership over them.. The spotlight here is on a fundamental question in political theory: who should get what from whom, when, how, and why? Questioning ourselves makes the world more unpredictable. Interrogate information instead of simply consuming it. One of the subjects was Ted Kaczynski (The Unabomber); he had one of the strongest negative responses to the study. His career has had a major impact on decision-making processes worldwide, as his discovery of superforecasters has enabled him to uncover the attributes and methodologies necessary for making accurate predictions. During a spacewalk, Luca felt water in his helmet. The person most likely to persuade you to change your mind is you. Tetlock has advanced variants of this argument in articles on the links between cognitive styles and ideology (the fine line between rigid and principled)[31][32] as well as on the challenges of assessing value-charged concepts like symbolic racism[33] and unconscious bias (is it possible to be a "Bayesian bigot"?). Counterfactual thought experiments: Why we can't live with them and how we must learn to live with them. In each of the three mindsets, the truth takes a back seat to other considerations: being right, defending your beliefs, and currying favor. When our 'sacred' beliefs are in jeopardy, we 'deliver sermons' to protect and promote our ideals. 3-38. Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Start by observing, asking questions, and listening. In B.M. In P.E. How Do We Know? New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? When, for instance, do liberals and conservatives diverge in the preferences for "process accountability" that holds people responsible for respecting rules versus "outcome accountability" that holds people accountable for bottom-line results? Listening well is more than a matter of talking less. Chapter 11: Escaping Tunnel Vision. They argue that tournaments are ways of signaling that an organization is committed to playing a pure accuracy game and generating probability estimates that are as accurate as possible (and not tilting estimates to avoid the most recent "mistake"). Get these quick-to-read conversation starters in your inbox every morning. Moore, D., Tetlock, P.E., Tanlu, L., &Bazerman, M. (2006). Dont try to politic a prosecutor, and be very careful if prosecuting a popular politician. Staw & A. Comparative politics is the study. Its the habits we develop as we keep revising our drafts and the skills we build to keep learning., Chapter 10: Thats Not the Way Weve Always Done It. . Tetlock, R.N. That said, its hard to knock a book that preaches the importance of curiosity, open-mindedness, flexible thinking and empathy. Make your next conversation a better one. In real-world debates over distributive justice, however, Tetlock argues it is virtually impossible to disentangle the factual assumptions that people are making about human beings from the value judgments people are making about end-state goals, such as equality and efficiency. Contact: Philip Tetlock, (614) 292-1571; [email protected] Written by Jeff Grabmeier, (614) 292-8457; [email protected]. It's also the question that Philip Tetlock, a psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-author of "Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," has dedicated his career to answering. Those with a scientific mindset search for truth by testing hypotheses, regularly run experiments, and continuously uncover new truths and revise their thinking. Rational models of human behavior aim to predict, possibly control, humans. And if you absolutely mustand you better have a good reasondisobey them., The Government-funded research of the Good Judgment Project has manifested into a public platform called Good Judgment Open, where they recruit talented people to be trained to become a superforecaster.13They also have a global network of superforecasters who offer analytic services. [20][21][22][23] Real-world implications of this claim are explored largely in business-school journals such as the Journal of Consumer Research, California Management Review, and Journal of Consumer Psychology. Tetlock, P.E., &Lebow, R.N. Motivational interviewing: The best approach to changing someones mind is to help that person make the change on their own. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. Psychological Review, 109, 451-472. Grants solution is an idea he calls rethinking. Rethinking is the process of doubting what you know, being curious about what you dont know, and updating your thinking based on new evidence (in other words, the scientific method). Group identification helps us achieve these goals. Newsroom. Researchers in the 20th century reported similar findings: patients unaware of their situation and unable to learn from experience. Insights and interesting reads delivered straight to your inbox. The Good Judgment Project was first developed as an entry into a competition for accurately forecasting geopolitical events, which was being hosted by The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity.12Despite the impressive competition, The Good Judgment Project won the tournament. Everyone carries cognitive tools that are regularly used and seldom questioned or subject to reflection or scrutiny. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. By identifying the attributes shared by successful forecasters and the methodologies that allow for accurate forecasting, Tetlock and his team at Good Judgment are able to help companies promote these skills among their employees. Grant recommends a fourth role to offset those found in Tetlocks model. the concept of good judgment (with special emphasis on the usefulness of forecasting tournaments in assessing one key component of good judgment: accuracy); the impact of accountability on judgment and choice; the constraints that sacred values place on the boundaries of the thinkable; the difficult-to-define distinction between political versus politicized psychology; and. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. 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How Can We Know? This book fills that need. Philip Tetlock (author of 'Super-Forecasting', reviewed in this column) has a useful description of the mindsets we tend to slip into, to avoid rethinking ideas. Opening story: Teacher Erin McCarthy assigned her 8th grade students a textbook from 1940 to see if they accepted the information without question or if they noticed any problematic anachronisms. Tetlock has been interested in forecasting since the 1980s, he says during an interview at his home in Philadelphia. Opening story: Looks at Grants cousin, Ryan, who spent many years studying and training to become a neurosurgeon only to realize later that he wasnt thrilled with his career choice and investment in time. Values are core principles like excellence, generosity, freedom, fairness, integrity, etc. Deniers reject anything from the other side. They revert to preacher, prosecutor, and politician modes. Good Judgment, Inc. 2014 - Present9 years. Tetlock has received awards from scientific societies and foundations, including the American Psychological Association, American Political Science Association, American Association for the Advancement of Science, International Society of Political Psychology, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the National Academy of Sciences and the MacArthur, Sage, Grawemeyer, and Carnegie Foundations. The sender of information is often not its source. **Chapter 1: A Preacher, a Prosecutor, a Politician, and a Scientist ** McCarthy taught her students that knowledge evolves and that it continues to evolve today. We can demonstrate openness by acknowledging where we agree with our critics and even what weve learned from them.. Because we have the doubt, we then propose looking in new directions for new ideas. Philip Tetlock | Psychology Philip Tetlock Leonore Annenberg University Professor BA, University of British Columbia; PhD, Psychology, Yale University Office Location: Solomon Labs, 3720 Walnut St, Room C8 Email: [email protected] Phone: 215-746-8541 Website: http://www.sas.upenn.edu/tetlock/ CV (url): Forecasters with the biggest news media profiles were also especially bad. Resisting the impulse to simplify is a step toward becoming more argument literate.. He found that overall, his study subjects weren't. This book fills that need. How can we know? Critical Review. Tetlock, P.E., (2000). We risk overemphasizing pleasure at the expense of purpose. Walk into Your Mind. capitalism and communism. How Can We Know? Thinking like a politicianseeking to please otherscan lead us astray. 5 Jun. System 2 is the familiar realm of conscious thought. It has been lauded as both aNew York TimesBestseller and anEconomistBest Book of 2015. It implies that we have arrived at an optimal solution. I understand the advantages of your recommendation. Values retain flexibility that opinions do not. I found myself comparing this book to another one I read last year, Ozan Varols Think Like a Rocket Scientist which I found more interesting and better structured. Presumes the world is divided into two sides: believers and non-believers. Rethinking is fundamental to scientific thinking. PHILIP TETLOCK: We want a lot of things from our forecasters, and accuracy is often not the first thing. Political Psychology, 15, 509-530. Totalitarian ego: Psychological term for the mental gate-keeper that keeps threatening information out of our heads. You wouldn't use a hammer to try to cut down a tree, and try to use an axe to drive nails and you're likely to lose a finger. (2005). Implicit bias and accountability systems: What must organizations do to prevent discrimination? Superforecasting is both a fascinating leap into the art of decision making as well as a manual for thinking clearly in an increasingly uncertain world. Tetlock aims to provide an answer by analyzing the predictive methodologies of leaders and researching those that are most successful at accurately forecasting future events. They challenged each other's thinking and this allowed them to improve their ideas through a continuous feedback loop. These findings were reported widely in the media and came to the attention of Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) inside the United States intelligence communitya fact that was partly responsible for the 2011 launch of a four-year geopolitical forecasting tournament that engaged tens of thousands of forecasters and drew over one million forecasts across roughly 500 questions of relevance to U.S. national security, broadly defined. Prosecutor: "When we're in prosecutor mode, we're trying to prove someone else wrong," he continued. Thoughtful self-critical analysis? We base our decisions on forecasts, so these findings call into question the accuracy of our decision-making. Task conflict can be beneficial and generate better outcomes. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. Politician mode seeks the approval of others and has little conviction for the truth. Pavel Atanasov, J. Witkowski, Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock (Under Review), The person-situation debate revisited: Forecasting skill matters more than elicitation method. [16], In addition to his work on the bias-attenuating versus bias-amplifying effects of accountability, Tetlock has explored the political dimensions of accountability. Make a list of conditions in which your forecast holds true. Luca assumed the problem was a leak with his drinking bag (it wasnt). Since 2011, he has been the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania. Confident humility: An ideal wherein the individual has faith in their abilities but retains sufficient doubt and flexibility to recognize they could be wrong. Status is gained by holding the purest expression of these views. It's also the question that Philip Tetlock, a psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-author of " Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ," has dedicated his career. (2000). 1988-1995 Director, Institute of Personality and Social Research, University of California, Berkeley. philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician; 29 Jun 22; ricotta cheese factory in melbourne; philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politicianis sonny barger still alive in 2020 Category: . ; Unmaking the West: What-if Scenarios that Rewrite World History; and Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics. Ellen Ochoa (NASA astronaut and director) 3x5 note card reminded her to ask these questions: How do you know? is an important question to ask both of ourselves and of others. Wilbur Wright: Honest argument is merely a process of mutually picking the beams and motes out of each others eyes so both can see clearly.. The book also profiles several "superforecasters." Every individual possesses cognitive tools and accumulated knowledge that they regularly rely upon. Tetlock, P. E., Visser, P., Singh, R., Polifroni, M., Elson, B., Mazzocco, P., &Rescober, P. (2007). The team was inserted into challenging conditions and the fire quickly overtook them. Jason Zweig ofThe Wall Street Journalcalls it the most important book on decision making since Daniel KahnemansThinking, Fast and Slow, which, in the area of behavioral economics, is very high praise indeed. I hate you!). Phil Tetlock's (political scientist) mindset model: Preachers, prosecutors, and politicians. In the first chapter of the book, Grant outlines three common mindsets coined by political scientist Phil Tetlock: preacher, prosecutor, and politician. Binary bias promotes us vs. them hostility and stereotyping. Tetlock also realized that certain people are able to make predictions far more accurately than the general population. There are solid ideas in Think Again, but the presentation left this reader wanting. We have to be careful when theyre out of their domains. In a study of entrepreneurs, a test group was encouraged to use scientific thinking to develop a business strategy. Tetlock's advice for people who want to become better forecasters is to be more open-minded and attempt to strip out cognitive biases, like Neil Weinstein's unrealistic optimism. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. Good teachers introduce new thoughts, but great teachers introduce new ways of thinking., Education is more than the information we accumulate in our heads. Tetlock and Gardner (2015) also suggest that the public accountability of participants in the later IARPA tournament boosted performance. They give examples of successful and unsuccessful decision-making processes, none more diametrically opposed as two US Army missions. (2006) Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. The book mentions how experts are often no better at making predictions than most other people, and how when they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable. Prosecutors work well in a courtroom. 1 Department of Political Science, George Washington University, 2201 G. Street NW, Washington, DC 20052; e-mail: [email protected]; 2 Departments of Psychology and Political Science, Ohio State University, 142 Townshend Hall, 1885 Neil Avenue, Columbus, Ohio 43210; e-mail: [email protected]. or "What is the likelihood of naval clashes claiming over 10 lives in the East China Sea?" What do you want to be when you grow up? These include beliefs, assumptions, opinions, and more. [10][11], In a 1985 essay, Tetlock proposed that accountability is a key concept for linking the individual levels of analysis to the social-system levels of analysis. Group polarization: The phenomenon where we interact with people like us. He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019. Political Psychology, 15, 567-577. But we rarely question or consider this knowledge which includes beliefs, assumptions, opinions, and prejudices. This research interest led him to discover that the predictions most people including experts make about future outcomes are not usually significantly better than chance. Tetlock, P.E., & Mitchell, G. (2009). Tetlock, P.E., Kristel, O., Elson, B., Green M., &Lerner, J. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. Tetlock and Mellers[10] see forecasting tournaments as a possible mechanism for helping intelligence agencies escape from blame-game (or accountability) ping-pong in which agencies find themselves whipsawed between clashing critiques that they were either too slow to issue warnings (false negatives such as 9/11) and too fast to issue warnings (false positives). If we want to get an idea across or attempt to change someones mind, our best bet is to first understand the lay of the land and the roles everyone is playing. Tetlock: The current project is supported by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency of the US government -- and it is the most systematic effort, to date, at testing the effectiveness. on government, politics, or international affairs and the Robert E. Lane Award for best book in political psychology. Michelle Obama on asking a child what they want to be when they grow up: Its one of the most useless questions an adult can ask a child. Additionally, Good Judgment offers consulting services that are incredibly valuable for policymakers, who need to anticipate the global consequences of their decisions.7, Foresight isnt a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. The title of this 2005 release asks the question on all of our minds. modern and postmodern values. Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Dont Know. Opening story: Ursula Mercz, in the late 1800s, was diagnosed as blind but insisted she could see and was completely unaware of this fact. Present fewer reasons to support their case. GET BOOK > Unmaking the West: What-if scenarios that rewrite world history Tetlock, P.E., Lebow, R.N., & Parker, G. or "How likely is the head of state of Venezuela to resign by a target date?" [43][44][45][46][47] Hypothetical society studies make it possible for social scientists to disentangle these otherwise hopelessly confounded influences on public policy preferences. Central to nearly all debates about politics, power, and justice is the tension between. What are the uncertainties in your analysis? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 78 (2000):853-870. Tetlock is also co-principal investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a multi-year study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events. This is the mindset of the scientist. Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania and author of Superforecasting talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his work on assessing probabilities with teams of thoughtful a Show EconTalk, Ep Philip Tetlock on Superforecasting - Dec 20, 2015 *These modes run throughout Adam Grants book, Think Again. For THE book on predictions and decisions in the face of uncertainty, see Philip Tetlocks Superforecasting., Your email address will not be published. The interrogators would aggressively assault the subjects world-views (the goal was to mentally stress the participants). Task conflict: Arguments over specific ideas and opinions (e.g. Because of this they remain curious and flexible, always seeking the truth. The simplest way to start rethinking our options is to question what we do daily.. (2002). Open their mind to the possibility they might be wrong and let them work their way to the solution. This results in more extreme beliefs. Strong opinions like stereotypes and prejudice are less likely to be reconsidered. We can strategize from there and know which mode, preacher, prosecutor, or politician, to operate from and to. He also identified "overpredicting change, creating incoherent scenarios" and "overconfidence, the confirmation bias and base-rate neglect." So too do different mental jobs. Plan ahead to determine where they can find common ground. Weak arguments dilute strong ones. Among the more surprising findings from the tournament were: These and other findings are laid out in particularly accessible form in the Tetlock and Gardner (2015) book on "Superforecasting." Philip E. Tetlock University of Pennsylvania Abstract Research on judgment and choice has been dominated by functionalist assumptions that depict people as either intuitive scientists animated. I saw it everywhere I saw it in my own thinking in other people's thinking I saw it in the way we . Intelligent management of intelligence analysis: Escaping the blame game by signaling commitment to trans-ideological epistemic values. Visit www . By contrast, System 1 is largely a stranger to us. [Adam Grant]: Two decades ago, I read a brilliant paper by Phil Tetlock, who introduced me to this idea of thinking like a preacher, a prosecutor or a politician. Political psychology or politicized psychology: Is the road to scientific hell paved with good moral intentions? In collaboration with Greg Mitchell and Linda Skitka, Tetlock has conducted research on hypothetical societies and intuitions about justice ("experimental political philosophy"). Chapter 5: Dances with Foes. In order to develop The Good Judgment Project, Tetlock worked alongside Barbara Mellers, a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. Binary thinking results in fewer opportunities for finding common ground. Recognize complexity as a signal of credibility., Psychologists find that people will ignore or even deny the existence of a problem if theyre not fond of the solution.. When he is pretty sure of how it is going to work, and he tells you, This is the way its going to work, Ill bet, he still is in some doubt. Learning from experience: How do experts think about possible pasts (historical counterfactuals) and probable futures (conditional forecasts)? You wouldn't use a hammer to try to cut down a tree, and try to use an axe to drive nails and you're likely to lose a finger. This talk given by Tetlock goes along with his 2015 book,Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Optimism and big-picture thinking will help you sell your business idea. I think that we look to forecasters for ideological reassurance, we look to forecasters for . Organizational culture can either foster or inhibit rethinking. We wont have much luck changing other peoples minds if we refuse to change ours. View being wrong as a good thing; an opportunity to learn something new. ebook Price: $69.95/54.00 ISBN: 9780691027913 Published: Sep 8, 1996 Follow Philip Tetlock to get new release emails from Audible and Amazon. Between 1987 and 2003, Tetlock asked 284 people who "comment[ed] or offer[ed] advice on political and economic trends" professionally to make a series of predictive judgments about the world . What leads you to that assumption? Youre expected to doubt what you know, be curious about what you dont know, and update your views based on new data.. It refers to who must answer to whom for what. Posing questions and letting the other person draw their own conclusions is more powerful than trying to give them your answer. [12][13] In his earlier work in this area, he showed that some forms of accountability can make humans more thoughtful and constructively self-critical (reducing the likelihood of biases or errors), whereas other forms of accountability can make us more rigid and defensive (mobilizing mental effort to defend previous positions and to criticize critics). What adverse side effects can such de-biasing efforts have on quality of decision-making. Cognitive Biases in Path-Dependent Systems: Theory-Driven Reasoning About Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics," in T. Gilovich, D.w. Griffin, and D. Kahneman (eds) Inferences, Heuristics and Biases: New Directions in Judgment Under Uncertainty. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. Something about the book felt superficialeach of the individual parts could have been a book unto itself. He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019. ", This page was last edited on 18 February 2023, at 16:04. , traces the evolution of this project. The slavery debate in antebellum America: Cognitive style, value conflict, and the limits of compromise", "Disentangling reasons and rationalizations: Exploring perceived fairness in hypothetical societies", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Philip_E._Tetlock&oldid=1140127422. As if at some point you become something and thats the end., Kids might be better off learning about careers as actions to take rather than as identities to claim..

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